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  #16  
Old 02-01-2015, 09:57 PM
69JavelinMan 69JavelinMan is offline
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Importing cars just got a whole lot more expensive, that should flow on into increased prices here over time, but there is a lot of pain in the cashed up bogan world at the moment due to the downturn in mining so it could also see a lot of them needing to sell their toys, which could send prices the other way.

Don't forget that we now have a global oversupply of iron ore, so there is probably more downside rather than upside in the aussie dollar.

It's already getting painful buying your parts from the US. Just hope it doesn't fall too much further in the next few months as I have a big US trip with the family planned for April, don't want to spend the whole time camping.
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  #17  
Old 02-01-2015, 10:02 PM
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Some think it will keep dropping to 75 cents

http://www.stgeorge.com.au/assets/st...ok-10Dec14.pdf
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  #18  
Old 02-01-2015, 10:50 PM
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Cool down down down

Its gotta drop .. your already buying around $.077c and $0.73c at Sydney airport. What cars and parts are here are probably already a bargain... but if you aint got a job.. its not going to help you. All the freight costs are ..what.. DOWN...?? you would think they would if the Oil price is lower.. but . no.. its up.. as is your payments with any freight.. and as is your import duties and GST .. per the A$ value base its calculated on. Anybody here remember when the A$ hit around $.48c to the us $.. what about 1990 from memory.. it sucked....and we had import duties plus 22% sales taxes on everything over A$400.. you can't buy practically nothing without Customs hold out their hand.. I hated the GST idea but glad Howard brought it in as the end result was cheaper for us along with the $1000 limit thing.
Although.. it looks like Ebay, Australia post, ..and any company with an Australian corporate operation... including virtual...thats pushing out of country direct sales/ helping to make it happen.. ie ebays Global Shipping, AMX with there similar service.. Amazon etc.. will all need to collect some form of GST on imports as low as $30 like many other countries now do. Apparently NZ has a really low one as does the UK and Canada.. And that will include just like it used to.. tax compounded by the shipping price too.
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  #19  
Old 03-01-2015, 07:19 AM
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.......... Anybody here remember when the A$ hit around $.48c to the us $.. what about 1990 from memory.. ............
Yes!
I was in the US then.
Even the Mexican money changers would not accepts Aussie $'s
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  #20  
Old 03-01-2015, 08:25 AM
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Well I'm a bit lucky that i have everything i need from the states, and what else i do need can be supplied here....I know Dave at PONTIWOLD will sell stock he has at shelf price ,but the new one he replaces it with has to cop the new cost ...its the same with every where as i no your all aware.......but stuff out of china is getting cheaper.......and stuff I've looked at will more then do the job as a lot of it is already in the Hi Performance world
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  #21  
Old 03-01-2015, 08:28 AM
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My experience with Pontiworld has been good, customer service has been excellent.
As you mention Allan, these businesses are not going to be able to soak up the exchange rate variance as their existing stock (which was probably purchased at a more favourable X-rate) is sold.
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  #22  
Old 03-01-2015, 11:38 AM
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My neighbour across the road (owns a 68 Mustang) works as a forex trader ... might need to see what he thinks. He manages super funds whose components are in forex, so he must betting on something.
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  #23  
Old 03-01-2015, 12:25 PM
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cluxford cluxford is offline
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Hey Frank I was reading the other day in 2014, the traders who actually delivered the best returns for the year bet on the AUD sliding. Would be interesting to see what they are betting on for 2015
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  #24  
Old 03-01-2015, 03:16 PM
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RAW454 RAW454 is offline
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So there is no one factor but 2 primary ones:

1. US supplying more oil from non Middle East driving oil price down and USD more attractive to investors
2. Reserve Bank seeking a lower AUD to make exports more attractive, particularly Iron Ore, but if it helps other major industries like Wheat then that's upside

All the news I read says they want to hold it at around the 75-80c for some period of time so don't expect it to change anytime soon.
Thanks Chris. Makes sense. Was originally going to make a joke about how our parts may be costing more, but at least our V8s are costing less to feed... yet ironically they are heavily linked.

Will take prior purchases at $1+ as win, recalibrate my expectations on US parts costs and, of course, reduce number of excuses to support local businesses
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  #25  
Old 03-01-2015, 03:20 PM
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Short term our cars are worth nothing more as every man and his dog imported cheap US cars in the last few years and flooded the market. Long term if the dollar stays low the cars may creep up a bit but nothing significantly( unless it's a matching numbers rare car).
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  #26  
Old 03-01-2015, 03:56 PM
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Hey Frank I was reading the other day in 2014, the traders who actually delivered the best returns for the year bet on the AUD sliding. Would be interesting to see what they are betting on for 2015
Yeah it would. He just bought a house (is renting now) that must have been $2M easy ... must be confident.
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  #27  
Old 03-01-2015, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by chevguy View Post
Short term our cars are worth nothing more as every man and his dog imported cheap US cars in the last few years and flooded the market. Long term if the dollar stays low the cars may creep up a bit but nothing significantly( unless it's a matching numbers rare car).
I tend to agree, 2011 the cars flooded in, my thoughts are exporting numbers matching valuable cars back to the us to auctions if your that way inclined.

Speaking to a guy at a Bbq, his looking at XW GT replicas and willing to spend up to 70k for the right car, the Aussie stuff still has attractions and people willing to pay silly money.

For sure we will see 65 to 70 cents, Can't see the dollar rising like it did the last few years.
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  #28  
Old 03-01-2015, 10:10 PM
qik66 qik66 is online now
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the other major factor in the drop in the oil price is a forced over supply by the US to force the price down. they are doing this to pressure on Putin and what is happening in the Ukraine and other former Soviet states. Russia produces something like a third of the worlds oil production so the Ruble is very closely tied to the oil price. this can be seen with its value almost halved in the last three months. They are heading into recession. as for the dollar, it is going down and will stay there. the US economy is coming out of recession with 5% growth so the green back is increasing in value as much as the AUD is loosing value
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  #29  
Old 04-01-2015, 09:44 AM
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I wonder how much tourism has contributed to the U.S recovery over the last few years. Every second person I know has been to the U.S for holidays, some multiple times. A lot of these people probably wouldn't have gone if the AUD exchange rate hadn't been so favourable. There seems to be a lot of tourists visiting the U.S from other countries aswell. I wonder if this will slow down significantly with the greenback gaining strength.

We are planning our second trip back in July 2016 (first trip was july 2010 and 81c) but it depends on where the dollar is by then. Haven't had spare money to buy parts or convert to U.S dollars until now.

Last edited by *rayman*; 04-01-2015 at 10:58 AM..
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  #30  
Old 04-01-2015, 04:21 PM
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Actually I spoke to my friend who is the trader.
His opinion is that the A$ will stay flat or go down. Not up anytime soon that he can see.

Interestingly he said that key global indicators are set to pretty much what they were 5 years ago ... just before the GFC.

People have short memory he says. He trades forex and other commodities for huge super funds.

He knows he will take a hit on the house he just bought, but it was the right place for them at the right time.
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1970 Ford Mustang Sportsroof 302W/Toploader
1970 EL Camino 350/TH350 - The FrankenUte
2006 Jeep SRT8 - Big dumb US fun.
2007 FPV Force6 - Wife's car
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