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Old 02-01-2015, 04:46 PM
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RAW454 RAW454 is offline
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Name: Deano
USD vs AUD Currency Exchange Rate Trend

Hmmm... Seems not the best time to buy parts (for say, another engine rebuild. Ahem )

Dramatic drop just in last 4-6 weeks. Anybody know why? (I don't watch the news )

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At 81c, lowest since GFC fallout in 2009

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Any folk in the know? Stock up on USD before it bombs further, or hold off a month or two to get goodies.

Source FYI: Yahoo Finance
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  #2  
Old 02-01-2015, 05:32 PM
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Price of oil and reserve bank Deano

US has been for several years looking at alternate sources of oil to the Middle east. Canada Shale oil and a few off shore under water locations. Long story short they've started to commercialise this and there is now more supply, seen the oil price ?

Since Sept it's almost fallen by 50%

As the oil price drops, that impacts a raft of other things like gold price (down - currently at about $1200 an ounce from $1400 about 9 months ago).

Also the AUD as people move back to buying the greenback.

Note also that the reserve bank here has been saying for about 6 months now they really wanted the AUD to be in the 75c - 80c range against the USD. So they've done nothing to prop it up either. Reason they want to make us more favourable for exports. The reason for this has been the dropping Iron Ore price (for the last 4 yeas the price has been hovering between $150-200 a tonne (pellets) but in the last 6 months has dropped under $100. This has wiped massive massive amounts of our exports and in turn off the residual tax the Government earns. To the tune of BILLIONS. As a result the reserve bank needs to get the AUD down to make Australian Iron Ore more attractive that South American and US Iron Ore.

So there is no one factor but 2 primary ones:

1. US supplying more oil from non Middle East driving oil price down and USD more attractive to investors
2. Reserve Bank seeking a lower AUD to make exports more attractive, particularly Iron Ore, but if it helps other major industries like Wheat then that's upside

All the news I read says they want to hold it at around the 75-80c for some period of time so don't expect it to change anytime soon.
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Old 02-01-2015, 05:35 PM
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Funny how the fuel price hasn't dropped significantly though. Deano if you need parts buy them real soon as you'll probably find the Aussie companies immediately put there prices up as our dollar drops.
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Old 02-01-2015, 05:42 PM
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cluxford cluxford is offline
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and their argument Ken, sure oil is cheaper, but we have to buy it in USD which is now more expensive.

so this is their maths:

AUD = $1 to USD and oil is at $100 USD a barrel, so costs AUD $100 to buy a barrel

Now oil is at USD $55 a barrel, but AUD is at 80c. So now it costs me $69 a barrel (AUD) to buy.

That's still a 30% drop in cost of goods.

Petrol right now around here is hovering in the $1.11 - $1.14 a litre.

Down from around $1.35 - $1.40 a litre about 1 month ago.

so on average that's a price reduction of 18%.

Clearly someone is profiteering.
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Old 02-01-2015, 05:45 PM
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Sounding like an arsehole('cause that's usually how I come off sounding).......Regardless of the buck conversion rate, you're never gonna spend what you need to to get the job done properly anyhow Deano

That's the way you roll............Talk BIG, DO little


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Old 02-01-2015, 05:59 PM
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[QUOTE=rodent;162906]Sounding like an arsehole

I knew you were an expert at something
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Old 02-01-2015, 06:05 PM
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[QUOTE=guffer;162908]
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodent View Post
Sounding like an arsehole

I knew you were an expert at something
I'm a professional at whatever I tackle.......even quoting threads, unlike your good self
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Old 02-01-2015, 06:30 PM
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When i started trading oil was $52 a barrel and petrol was 92c a liter up here, which was probably 86 where you guys are.......the world is run by thieves for share holders
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Old 02-01-2015, 06:47 PM
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69stang 69stang is offline
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Does this now mean the value in our US muscle cars has risen by around 20%.
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Old 02-01-2015, 07:47 PM
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YES they are now worth heaps.....you don't give muscle away
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Old 02-01-2015, 07:55 PM
qik66 qik66 is offline
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How I wish I could buy petrol for $1.14!! still around the $1.50 mark up here in sunny Townsville
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Old 02-01-2015, 08:04 PM
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Mate at Lismore NSW. ....premium is around.....$1.40
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Old 02-01-2015, 08:11 PM
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Sunny Perth varies between $1.06 to $1.27, not sure why its not down on the east coast?
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Old 02-01-2015, 08:23 PM
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we were always told up here that the further you were from the refinery the more you pay...so our juice comes from Brisbane to here...mmmmmm thats bullsh/t....they just charge what they want ...i worked for a company who ran the price of fuel on the north coast of NSW and i used to do drive byes to see the price of other servo's and we would go lower to undercut them .....we could make it anyprice

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Old 02-01-2015, 09:10 PM
Timborees Timborees is offline
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Just curious what you guys think will happen if the dollar continues to slide or plateau's around 80c...? obviously we all hope this instantly makes our cars worth more, but whats your thoughts on when this may flow into the market so that you would see a distinct jump in values? or is the never ending trail of cars coming here always going to mean that you will always need to very competitive in price to sell??
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